Coronavirus, aka COVID-19: I hope we have all got the message by now; after all, we’ve been implored by our leaders to stay home, to keep our distance, and to wash our hands repeatedly. Our president, our governor, our religious leaders, even national celebrities are calling for us to hunker down and embrace solitude for a season. I know this is very counter-culture for us, we relish opportunities to come together for all kinds of reasons; but now is the time to withdraw, just for a little while.

There are several reasons why we must all heed these warnings and take extreme precautions:
1. The mortality rate of COVID-19 is high.
2. It is highly contagious and with no immunity, a very large percentage exposed to COVID-19 will get sick.
3. It is spread before symptoms develop so to effectively stop the spread one must assume that they are infected and act accordingly.
4. Certain populations are highly vulnerable such as the elderly, those with heart or lung issues, those with diabetes, and those with compromised immune systems.
5. A high percentage of those contracting COVID-19 will require hospitalization. This is the crux of the problem and why we are currently under a mandate to stay at home unless performing essential functions. Experts anticipate a tsunami of healthcare needs in the next couple of weeks and an inadequate number of hospital beds, staff, and ventilators to meet the need too many people need it at the same time.

As a numbers person, I want to share some sobering statistics of why the Coronavirus is much more dangerous than the flu.

Looking at the graphic above the range of deaths (12,000-61,000) and illnesses (9,300,000-45,000,000) for influenza (the flu) are shown from 2010 to 2020. Both the high and low numbers of cases in the U.S. over the last decade yield the same illness and fatality rates of .001 (12,000 ÷ 9,300,000 and 61,000 ÷ 45,000,000 both = .001).

Flu infection Rate (what percent of the population will get the flu on average each year): 3% to 11% of the population gets infected with the flu each year.
Union Population: 19,688 x .03 = 591; 19,688 x .11= 2,166

Flu Fatality Rate: 3% of those infected in Union county (the lower number) 591 x .001 = less than 1 person per year (.59) and the high number is 2166 x .001 = 2 people dying per year of the flu.

Coronavirus projected infection rate: 40% to 70% of the US population is estimated to get COVID-19. The population of Union County is 19,688 according to Wikipedia. 19,688 x .4 = 7,875. 19,688 x .7 = 13,781

Coronavirus fatality rate: The fatality rate is .02 now in the United States (see sources below). For 40% of the population (low infection rate) that is 7,875 x .4 = 158 people dying. For 70% (higher infection rate) that is 13,781 x .02 = 276 people dying.

So, COVID-19 deaths in Union County, are estimated between 158 and 276 (worse case). Flu deaths may reach 1 to 2 (worse case) respectively.

Flu hospitalizations: Flu: (140,000 ÷ 9,300,000 =.015 to 810,000 ÷ 45,000,000 = .018, so round up to .02). Union County Population: 3% of the population infected: 591 x .02 = 11. 11% of the population infected: 2166 x .02 = 43.

Coronavirus hospitalizations: Union population
19,688 x .4 = 7,875 x .12 = 945 and 19,688 x .7 = 13,781 x .12 = 1,654

So these are the projected numbers unless we slow the curve and spread this out so hospitals can handle the cases and have enough ICU beds, enough staff, and enough ventilators. Please, please stop the spread by staying home and encouraging your family and friends to do the same!

References:
Hospitalization study:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm
CDC Flu page:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%…
Death rates: coronavirus.jhu.edu/
CDC flu infection rates: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm